Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 187.911372 230.047497 283.064777 356.114083 456.534272 5.935096e+02 8.015670e+02
2025-02-16 140.742265 188.621022 257.133796 367.155095 549.774604 8.633426e+02 1.505409e+03
2025-02-23 114.420307 162.908976 238.732000 374.992045 637.645495 1.189249e+03 2.714304e+03
2025-03-02 94.712693 140.537055 216.773209 365.517747 687.508002 1.488877e+03 4.449371e+03
2025-03-09 80.860008 123.876787 199.014841 355.768752 730.455960 1.820415e+03 7.281608e+03
2025-03-16 69.935804 109.792213 182.090456 341.192057 754.117327 2.133472e+03 1.155964e+04
2025-03-23 66.594898 108.147399 187.631090 376.604173 932.241840 3.262068e+03 3.307156e+04
2025-03-30 60.967476 101.280782 181.227143 381.880161 1028.552444 4.284861e+03 8.571104e+04
2025-04-06 57.144250 97.156870 179.524183 398.485100 1179.653734 6.089812e+03 4.093832e+05
2025-04-13 52.211106 90.119191 170.091937 391.058749 1237.352219 7.534851e+03 2.422089e+06
2025-04-20 50.857622 90.029784 176.173430 430.681175 1539.236263 1.315165e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 49.201079 89.043096 179.942494 465.419257 1873.110024 2.357293e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 47.054739 86.899403 180.957123 494.048813 2243.197267 4.522761e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 44.641081 83.854412 179.138551 512.777053 2602.824415 8.953872e+04 NaN
2025-05-18 42.246637 80.529342 175.927099 525.364802 2961.825918 1.916040e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 39.218232 75.383146 166.814267 510.626563 3068.222625 3.187589e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 36.517889 70.713846 158.286058 495.463216 3158.653657 5.572912e+05 NaN
2025-06-08 33.892104 65.956870 148.787974 472.891672 3142.085401 8.624447e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 33.643550 66.829395 155.703861 527.980604 4219.725398 5.982805e+07 NaN
2025-06-22 32.179096 64.577296 152.931638 536.259294 4745.582931 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 31.222850 63.478070 153.511134 562.431510 5728.306849 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.554400 60.421450 147.446895 550.704446 5982.060284 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 29.412618 61.237591 153.977411 613.674744 8402.388229 NaN NaN